Future Military Scenarios: Evolution or Revolution?
The exercise identified 10 future scenarios that are very likely to materialize over the next 20 years

The European Defence Agency (EDA) recently conducted a Technology Foresight Exercise to identify and define the main challenges that Europe's armed forces are likely to face over the next 20 years and beyond, as well as the defense tools needed to address them. The exercise looked up to 20 years into the future to provide a strategic vision of the possible impact that new technologies will have on defense in 2040 and beyond. The exercise was based on a methodology that combines different existing methods and processes, along with best practices and lessons learned from the wider EDA community of foresight practitioners. The exercise outcome will feed into next year's revision of the EU's Capability Development Plan (CDP) and serve for future updates of EDA's Overarching Strategic Research Agenda (OSRA) and the Key Strategic Activities (KSA).

The exercise identified 10 future scenarios that are very likely to materialize over the next 20 years in Europe, all of which are relevant for defense. These scenarios are:

  • Software-based battlefields

  • Space as an operational military domain

  • Extended and augmented reality everywhere, also in defence

  • Dominance of unmanned and autonomous platforms on the battlefield

  • Hybrid human-machine teaming, including the military

  • Proliferation of more and more sophisticated biological weapons

  • Enhanced cognitive abilities of soldiers (human enhancement)

  • Real time mapping of dynamic environments

  • Use of misinformation

  • Environmental problems, energy supply, climate change

The impact of these scenarios on the defense industry and the types of adaptations they will require were analyzed from different time perspectives: very short-term (2024), medium-term (2030), and long-term (2040).

Menatek Defense Technologies is following the future of military scenarios up close. As an industry leader in defense, Menatek is committed to staying up-to-date with the latest developments and innovations in the field. By closely monitoring the identified scenarios and analyzing their potential impact, Menatek can develop innovative solutions. Menatek's team of experts is constantly striving to push the boundaries of what is possible in the defense industry and to ensure that armed forces are equipped with the most advanced and effective subsystems.